Research & Analysis

Fed Holds at 3.50%-3.75%: FRED Data Signals Soft Landing, But NFP Is the Test

The FOMC's 9-3 vote is the most divided since 2016. FRED data backs the soft-landing thesis. Friday's July NFP is the variable that decides September.

Tech Stocks Face Double Headwind: China Exposure and Earnings Season Risk

Tech is pulling back on a double headwind: renewed US-China trade tensions affecting major revenue exposure and elevated earnings season uncertainty. QQQ underperformed SPY by 70bps as XLV and XLF abs

FOMC Dissent and Stagflation Signals: The September Rate Question Takes Shape

Three FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike on July 29, and CME FedWatch now prices a 56.9% probability of a September hike. With Q2 GDP at 1.5% and June payrolls at 57,000, the stagflationary data configuration puts the Fed in its most difficult position of the current cycle.

Bitcoin Holds as ETF Flows, On-Chain Data, and Regulatory Signals Align

Korea's ETF Crackdown Is Working. The Damage Already Done Is the Problem.

South Korea's regulators cut leveraged ETF volumes by 92%. The speculative frenzy is over. The $39 billion in retail losses, the 40% KOSPI drawdown, and the semiconductor supply chain overhang are not.

Silver Surges 2.6%, Copper Hits a 52-Week High, Oil Craters 5%

Silver surged 2.6% to $59/oz on August 5 as copper hit a 52-week high and oil fell 5% on ceasefire news. Gold holds $4,161 with a CFTC positioning washout as backdrop.

June JOLTS: 7.359M Openings Miss Adds to Labor Softening Case

June JOLTS job openings came in at 7.359 million, missing the 7.420 million consensus by 61,000. Combined with a downward revision to May and the June payrolls miss, the data describes a labor market cooling faster than anticipated.

June JOLTS Came in at 7.359M, Missing Estimates as Labor Market Cools Further

June job openings printed at 7.359 million, a 61,000 miss vs the 7.420 million consensus. With a downward May revision and payrolls already soft at +57,000, the demand-side picture has shifted ahead of the September FOMC decision.

Gold Holds $4,064 as Central Banks Signal Record Buying

Spot gold held $4,064 on August 4 as the World Gold Council's 2026 survey found 45% of central bank reserve managers plan to add gold over the next 12 months, the most bullish reading in nine years. Silver futures up 59% on the year. WTI crude posted an 18% July gain.

Peak Earnings Season: What an 86% Beat Rate Tells Us

With 86% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates in Q2 2026, this earnings season is historically strong. Here's what the beat rate means, which sectors are driving it, and what the remaining reporters will tell us about the second half of the year.

Bitcoin Defies Rate-Hike Fears With ETF Flows Turning Positive

Bitcoin held $63,770 on August 4 with a +7% July gain, as spot ETF flows turned positive with $170.1M in net inflows on August 3. Here is what the institutional signal means for the near-term outlook.

FBI Agent Charged With Stealing $900K in Crypto From Nation-State Accounts

FBI supervisory counterintelligence agent Patrick Yaroch was charged with allegedly stealing more than $900,000 in crypto from Russia-linked wallets the bureau was monitoring, exposing a gap in government digital asset custody controls.