Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Macro

OFAC Clears 84 From Sanctions List and Opens a Digital Exit Ramp: What It Means for Banks and Designated Parties

Treasury's second round of SDN modernization removed 84 individuals and entities on July 27 while simultaneously launching a formal online portal for delisting petitions. The move codifies a structural shift in how OFAC defines sanctions success, and forces compliance officers to update their screening logic immediately.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20261 MIN READ

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Commodities

Iran's Gold-Crypto Pipeline: OFAC Exposes the Physical-to-Digital Settlement Layer Behind the Tala Token

U.S. Treasury's July 24 action against the DotOne conglomerate exposed how Iran-minted gold bars were tokenized, routed through a sanctioned exchange, and cleared across UAE and Turkish fintech nodes to reach international counterparties outside SWIFT. The architecture represents a maturation point in Iran's sanctions-evasion infrastructure: no longer ad-hoc oil barters, but a vertically integrated commodity-to-crypto settlement layer.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20269 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold Holds $364 as Oil Collapses 8.7%: The FOMC Binary Driving Commodities This Week

GLD holds $364.96 support while USO drops 8.73% on OPEC+ supply ramp. With the Fed meeting July 28-29, here are the levels that matter across gold, silver, oil, and copper.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20269 MIN READ

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Commodities

Three Geopolitical Shocks, Three Commodity Setups: Reading the July 28 Risk Map

WTI crude is down 35.5% from its March 2026 peak as US-Iran ceasefire talks progress in Oman. Gold holds above key support despite easing fear premium. Trump's Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries hit agriculture ETFs. Here is how each setup reads now.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20269 MIN READ

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Equities

Rotation Into Defensives Intensifies as QQQ Tests Support Ahead of FOMC and Mega-Cap Earnings

SPY closed flat at $739.09 while a decisive rotation moved capital from Technology and Energy into Consumer Staples and Financials. QQQ, down 5.79% over the past month, tests the $675-680 support band as Microsoft's Azure slowdown and an 80% September Fed hike probability reshape the growth trade.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 202610 MIN READ

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Crypto

Three Signals Crypto Traders Cannot Ignore This Week

Three converging signals define the crypto market on July 28: Iran's Bitcoin toll standoff at the Strait of Hormuz, deteriorating Bitcoin ETF inflows with IBIT reversing $415 million in two days, and the Senate's indefinite deferral of the CLARITY Act. BTC trades at $63,353 and ETH at $1,877 as CME FedWatch assigns 38% odds to a Tuesday rate hike.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20269 MIN READ

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Commodities

Offshore Nuclear and the US-Saudi Deal: Two Policy Shifts That Reshape Uranium and Oil

On July 22, the Trump administration signed two nuclear policy moves: a framework to evaluate offshore reactors on the US Outer Continental Shelf, and a 30-year cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia that may permit domestic uranium enrichment. Here is what both moves mean for uranium spot prices, oil markets, and the commodity trades tied to the nuclear buildout.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 20269 MIN READ

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Equities

Q2 Earnings Surge Masks Market Fault Lines

The 86% EPS beat rate looks exceptional on paper, but strip out Alphabet's $98 billion one-time gain and the picture shifts. Sector rotation, forward P/E at 20.1x, and a 80% September hike probability tell a more complex story.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 20268 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold at $4,089: Central Bank Demand Redefines the Reserve Asset Hierarchy

Gold at $4,089/oz is up 23.7% YTD but sits well below January's $5,405 peak. Central banks bought 244 tonnes net in Q1 2026, the third consecutive quarter above the five-year average. Here is what the positioning, technical, and macro data say about the road from here.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 20269 MIN READ

Three charts on a dark background: Fed funds rate falling, nonfarm payrolls fluctuating, and 10-year Treasury yield moving erratically.

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Macro

The Fed's Stagflation Trap

The Federal Reserve heads into its July 28-29 FOMC meeting with its dual mandate in open conflict. June nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000 versus 115,000 consensus while CPI runs at 3.5% and PPI at 5.5% year-over-year. Chair Kevin Warsh holds at 3.50-3.75% but the 10-year yield is already at 4.69%.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 202610 MIN READ

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Commodities

Both Gulf Corridors Under Fire: The Chokepoint Arithmetic Washington Hoped Would Not Add Up

Houthi forces declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia this week and struck two tankers transiting the Red Sea, closing the very bypass route that markets treated as a pressure valve for the near-fully blocked Strait of Hormuz. Combined non-Hormuz pipeline bypass capacity amounts to roughly 8.7 mb/d against Hormuz's pre-war 20 mb/d throughput. Meanwhile, Washington's threat to pay shipping damages from frozen Iranian money runs into a structural problem: the law that freezes the assets does not authorize seizing them.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 25, 20261 MIN READ

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Macro

BIS Reclassifies UAE to A:5: How a Gulf Pivot Rewires US Defense and Energy Export Architecture

On July 10, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security rewrote the rules governing US exports to the UAE, elevating the Gulf state to Country Group A:5, a tier previously reserved for formal treaty allies, and creating a new entity-specific approval framework that channels AI chips, military hardware, and oil-field equipment to approved Gulf institutions. The action formalizes a two-year strategic convergence linking the Iran campaign, a $1.4 trillion investment commitment, and the world's largest planned AI data center into a single regulatory instrument. No Gulf state has ever achieved this classification.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 25, 202611 MIN READ