Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Warehouse interior filled with rows of stacked black oil barrels in the foreground and shelves of shining gold bars in the background.
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Commodities

Gold Breaks $4,000, Silver Fades, Oil Surges 10%: The FOMC Trade Setup

Gold closed at $3,985.73 on July 16 after June retail sales at +0.2% killed a brief CPI-driven recovery to $4,062. WTI surged 10.1% from $72.45 to $79.75 on US military strikes in Iran. With the FOMC meeting on July 28-29 as the next major catalyst, here is what the technical setups and macro backdrop mean for positioning in precious metals and energy.

David MoralesDavid Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 17, 20269 MIN READ
Illustration of a gold bar with three pointed gold shards moving upward from beneath it, and silver arcs above the bar.
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Commodities

Gold's Defense of $4,000: June Selloff, ETF Outflows, and the Contrarian Case for Bullion

Gold futures held $4,037/oz on July 14 after a 28% correction from the $5,586 peak. June saw $8.9 billion in global ETF outflows driven by Warsh's hawkish pivot and dollar strength from the Iran MOU. The $4,000 level is the battleground: a hold sets up recovery; a break risks $3,800. But Asian central bank flows are quietly building the contrarian case.

David MoralesDavid Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 14, 20268 MIN READ
Stacks of gold and silver bars in foreground; in background, an oil tanker and refinery at sunset producing steam and light.
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Commodities

Commodities Deep Dive: Oil Shock and Precious Metals Divergence

The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 7-8, sending WTI crude up 5.13% to $72.08/bbl. Meanwhile gold pulled back 0.77% to $4,123/oz as safe-haven demand rotated into energy, and silver extended its correction to $60.54/oz, down 50% from its $121 peak. This premium analysis covers the mechanics of the oil spike, the gold consolidation, the structural case against silver near-term, and portfolio positioning guidance across all three assets.

Marcus WebbMarcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 10, 20261 MIN READ