10-Year Yield Breaks 5% Into the FOMC: What's Priced and What Isn't
The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since October 2023, hitting 5.03% on September 15, according to TradingEconomics and FRED's DGS10 series. The move caps a repricing that now has markets pricing roughly an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4.00% at the September 16 FOMC decision, per CME FedWatch.
Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury reached 5.03% on September 15, its highest level since October 2023, per TradingEconomics and FRED. Markets price about an 85% chance the Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% at the September 16 decision, up from roughly 44% on August 7, per CME FedWatch. August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% consensus and PPI…
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