The Fed's Hawkish Pivot: What the September FOMC Priced In
The September FOMC is no longer a close call. The August CPI report released Friday flipped the September 15-16 decision from a coin flip toward a quarter-point rate hike, with Kalshi's rate-decision contract pricing a 25 basis point increase at roughly 78% and CME FedWatch placing the odds near 90%. Markets have already repriced around that outcome, and the asymmetry now runs the other way: a hawkish hike with elevated dots is the downside catalyst for high-multiple equities, while a surprise hold would be the upside shock.
Key Takeaways August core CPI accelerated 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% consensus, keeping annual core at 2.4% and removing the cover for a hold. Energy drove the…
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