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Supplier Delivery Times Just Had Their Worst Month Since July 2022, and Diesel Is Doing the Pushing

Published September 24, 20266 min read

Diesel pump nozzle fueling a semi-truck at dusk with a hazy container port and crane in the background — As diesel tops $6.50 a gallon and ships queue at port, fuel costs are moving through every leg of the freight chain. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The freight recession is not over so much as it has been repossessed by demand. S&P Global's flash US PMI for September, released September 23, put the composite at 58.4, the highest since July 2021, and manufacturing at 57.0, up from 53.9 in August and well above the 53.6 consensus. Inside that strength sits the number this desk watches first: supplier delivery times lengthened by the most since July 2022, per the flash survey. When delivery times stretch while order books fill, freight stops being a buyer's market, and the bill starts moving through three legs at once: fuel, capacity and time.

The diesel leg is already priced. The EIA on-highway diesel price stood at $6.529 a gallon for the…

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