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September Payrolls Hold the Keys to the October-Hike Trade

Sarah Chen
Sarah ChenSenior Macro Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 2, 20268 min read
An empty warehouse aisle at first light, with a pallet jack beside stacks of unmarked cartons.
An empty warehouse aisle at first light, with the next payroll signal still unresolved. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

September nonfarm payrolls land today at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET) as the swing variable between a Federal Reserve that skips October and one that hikes, and the market has already done most of the re-basing. Consensus sits near +84-100K against August's +162K, and Kalshi now prices an October hold at 66%, a 25bp hike at 30% and a cut at 4%. Those odds have drifted over the week not because the labor market improved, but because the Fed's own speakers steered the market toward patience. The report determines whether that repricing holds or snaps back.

Key Takeaways Kalshi prices an October hold at 66%, a 25bp hike at 30% and a cut at 4% ahead of the print. September consensus sits near +84-100K (D…

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