Wage Growth Just Hit a Four-Year Low While Claims Sit at 196,000. Something Has to Give.

The wage data just contradicted the claims data, and the contradiction is the story of this labor market. Initial claims for the week ending September 12 fell 10,000 to 196,000, the eighth week below 200,000 since 1969, a reading that Claims Hit 196,000 in the Payrolls Survey Week. Hiring Is the Freeze. (see Claims Hit 196,000 in the Payrolls Survey Week. Hiring Is the Freeze. ), and continuing claims dropped 39,000 to 1,730,000, the lowest since January 2024. Yet average hourly earnings rose just 3.1 percent year over year in August, the slowest since May 2021, and that pace feeds straight into the Fed’s next call, which After the Fed's First Hike Since 2023, Two Prints Decide Whether Octob…