10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.28% Keeps Duration a Value Trap as the Fed Signals It Is Done Hiking

Two weeks after the Federal Reserve hiked rates for the first time in this cycle, the market is still fighting the message the Fed actually sent. The central bank raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 decision, and its Summary of Economic Projections puts the funds rate at a median 4.1% at the end of 2026 and holds it there through 2027, per the FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 . That is one more hike and then a long pause, not the prior-cut narrative the curve had been flirting with all summer. The long end has made the point unmistakable: the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%, multi-decade highs, with the cu…