Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Commodities

Gold at $4,036: The Anatomy of a 28% Correction and What Comes Next

Gold sits 28% below its January $5,595 ATH at $4,036, but June CPI of -0.4% MoM changed the calculus. Here is the anatomy of the correction, what PBOC buying and CFTC positioning say about the floor, and what the bull and bear cases look like from current levels.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 16, 20269 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold and HSBC's $4,560 Forecast: What the Bank's Hawkish-Fed Downgrade Tells Us About the Next Six Months

HSBC cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,560/oz citing Warsh's hawkish Fed and dollar strength. Spot near $4,030, down 28%. Full analysis of ETF outflows, central bank demand, CFTC positioning, and key price levels.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 15, 20268 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold's Defense of $4,000: June Selloff, ETF Outflows, and the Contrarian Case for Bullion

Gold futures held $4,037/oz on July 14 after a 28% correction from the $5,586 peak. June saw $8.9 billion in global ETF outflows driven by Warsh's hawkish pivot and dollar strength from the Iran MOU. The $4,000 level is the battleground: a hold sets up recovery; a break risks $3,800. But Asian central bank flows are quietly building the contrarian case.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 14, 20268 MIN READ

A stack of gleaming gold bars sits on a desk in the foreground, with a computer monitor displaying a map of the Strait of Hormuz in the blurred background. A keyboard, mouse, notebook, and pen are also visible on the desk.

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Commodities

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Hormuz Shock vs. Safe-Haven Demand

Gold fell 1.49% to $4,059/oz and silver dropped 2.92% to $58.10 as risk-on oil buying draws capital away from safe havens. The medium-term thesis remains constructive.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20265 MIN READ

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Commodities

Oil Surge Deep Dive: WTI at $74.55 and the Hormuz Premium

WTI crude surged 4.4% to $74.55/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz blockade hits month five. Analysis of the Hormuz premium, WTI targets, and energy sector plays.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 13, 20264 MIN READ

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Commodities

Commodities Deep Dive: Oil Shock and Precious Metals Divergence

The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 7-8, sending WTI crude up 5.13% to $72.08/bbl. Meanwhile gold pulled back 0.77% to $4,123/oz as safe-haven demand rotated into energy, and silver extended its correction to $60.54/oz, down 50% from its $121 peak. This premium analysis covers the mechanics of the oil spike, the gold consolidation, the structural case against silver near-term, and portfolio positioning guidance across all three assets.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 10, 20261 MIN READ

A stack of gold bars and a pile of gold coins in the foreground, with oil tankers and a classical building in the background at sunset.

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Commodities

Iran Conflict Drives Oil Surge, But Gold Falls on Fed

WTI crude rebounds to $73-74/bbl as Trump declares Iran ceasefire over. Gold falls to $4,055/oz despite escalation as Fed rate-hike odds hit 59%. Full commodities analysis.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 9, 20269 MIN READ

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Commodities

Hormuz Flashpoint: Gold and Silver Surge as Iran-US Conflict Escalates

Iran attacked three Hormuz tankers on July 7, collapsing the ceasefire MOU. Gold trades at $4,135, silver at $61.09, WTI up 3.3%. Full technical analysis with entry levels, scenarios, and portfolio positioning.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 8, 20268 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold Surges on Iran Peace Dividend as Oil Deflation Deepens

Gold rebounds to $4,126/oz as oil sinks to $69/bbl post-Iran ceasefire. NFP miss, Fed deadlock, and FOMC minutes set up precious metals' next move.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 7, 20261 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold Defies Risk-On: Why the Metal Isn't Following Oil Lower

Gold surged +2% to ~$3,130/oz as crude oil plunged 25% to $68.46/bbl on the US-Iran Hormuz deal. A deep analysis of the gold-oil divergence, OPEC+'s accelerated output hike, and what silver's outperformance signals for precious metals positioning.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 6, 20261 MIN READ

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Commodities

Gold Breaks Below $4,000 as Fed Pivots Hawkish: But the Floor Hasn’t Moved

Gold broke below $4,000 on June 24 as CME FedWatch priced a 70% chance of a September rate hike. Central bank demand at 244t/quarter held firm.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jun 29, 20264 MIN READ