Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

A brass balance scale with one pan tipped low beside a second, nearly level scale, lit dramatically against dark shadow.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets show Democratic advantage in 2026 House race while Senate remains a tossup

Polymarket contracts price Democratic House control at 87.5 percent as generic ballot polling shows a lead of eight to twelve points.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 16, 20263 MIN READ

Macro photo of a brass gauge dial with a blank face and still needle, symbolizing steady rate expectations.

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets Weekly: Fed Rate Path Holds Steady, CPI Markets Price Modest Inflation

Kalshi Fed markets show 49% probability of rates above 4% by January 2027, while CPI contracts price just 17% chance of a 0.6% monthly print in September.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 16, 20263 MIN READ