Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
The S&P 500 trades near 7,600 with an 86% EPS beat rate, yet only 64.8% of constituents hold above their 50-day average. What the breadth data says heading into the week's biggest earnings tests.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY gained 0.72% on August 3 as Iran de-escalation triggered a rotation into cyclicals. But small-caps lag, breadth is narrow, and a September Fed hike is still 61% odds.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed at $741.69 (+1.68%) Friday as Technology (XLK +5.50%) staged its strongest recovery since February 2026, powered by Amazon's AWS blowout. The real story is what happened beneath the index: 75% of S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200-day moving average, up from 56% at the June all-time high.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
July 30 is the most macro-dense session of Q2 2026 earnings season. GDP, PCE, a divided FOMC, and META's earnings shock are converging on equities simultaneously.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY holds near record at $740.86 but Technology ETF XLK falls 1.84% as China chip progress shakes semiconductor confidence. FOMC decides today. Here is where capital is going and what to watch.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed flat at $739.09 while a decisive rotation moved capital from Technology and Energy into Consumer Staples and Financials. QQQ, down 5.79% over the past month, tests the $675-680 support band as Microsoft's Azure slowdown and an 80% September Fed hike probability reshape the growth trade.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
The 86% EPS beat rate looks exceptional on paper, but strip out Alphabet's $98 billion one-time gain and the picture shifts. Sector rotation, forward P/E at 20.1x, and a 80% September hike probability tell a more complex story.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed Friday at $738.18, 2.9% below its all-time high, as mega-cap tech sold off on Alphabet's $195-205B capex shock. James Nakamura analyzes the sector rotation, market internals, and the FOMC binary setting up the next major move.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
Q2 earnings reveal a sharp S&P 500 sector rotation as Alphabet raises AI capex to $195-205B. James Nakamura analyzes what it means for tech vs. defensives.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY sits at $748.28, 1.6% below its 52-week high of $760.40. James Nakamura breaks down the sector rotation, market breadth data, and earnings bar that define the bull and bear cases.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY sits 2.4% below its 52-week high as Alphabet and Tesla approach Wednesday's earnings wire. The sector picture is more telling than the index. Energy and Communications are firming while Healthcare, Discretionary, and Industrials are under pressure. What VIX at 18.65 and a $90 oil print tell us about the week ahead.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed at $743.29 on July 20 while IWM's 52-week gain of +38.5% leads every major index. Banks posted record profits, Apple hit $4.88 trillion, and GOOGL plus TSLA report Wednesday. Here is what the setup looks like.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst