Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

An unmarked tanker truck stands beside loading pipes and storage tanks at a fuel depot.

CommoditiesboltSpecial Coverage

IEA oil release accelerates and prioritizes diesel: what the 100 million barrels means

The IEA agreed Oct 7 to speed up its coordinated oil release and put diesel first, with about 100 million barrels still to come as Europe's record EUR 2.24 a litre fuel and America's $6-plus gallon diesel squeeze costs that ride into freight and household bills.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 7, 20264 MIN READ

An unmarked oil tanker crosses a narrow waterway as a second tanker passes in the distance.

Commodities

$150 Oil Forecast: Citi's Hormuz Scenario and the IEA Option

Citi raised its 2026 Brent forecast and said $150 oil is possible if the Hormuz disruption persists. Here is what the scenario assumes, how the IEA release mechanism works, and why gasoline and diesel are not following crude down.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 7, 20265 MIN READ

Unmarked gold bars rest on a steel shelf inside a dimly lit bank vault.

Commodities

Gold price sits 26% below its record, but central banks and a $5,013 forecast say the pullback is a base

Gold trades about 26% below its January record as central banks keep buying and the LBMA forecast still points near $5,013. Hawkish Fed odds are the cap. Here is what separates a base from a breakdown.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 7, 20264 MIN READ

Two separated groups of gold bars rest on a dimly lit bank-vault shelf.

Commodities

Gold price holds $4,110-4,160 as hedge funds and ETFs split on positioning

Gold holds the $4,110-4,160 band despite a 24-year-high 10-year yield near 5.31%. The reason is a positioning split: hedge funds cut 2.7M oz in September while ETFs added 1.7M oz to a four-year high.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 6, 20263 MIN READ

Crude oil tanker crossing a shipping lane at dawn with refinery lights on the distant horizon

Commodities

Brent Holds $101 as the 100M-Barrel G7 Release Meets a $20-25 War Premium

Brent holds triple digits near $101 as the G7's 100M barrel release and recovering Gulf exports meet a $20-25 war-risk premium in the crude curve.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 5, 20262 MIN READ

Close-up of steel refinery distillation pipes and valves, with more processing equipment blurred behind them.

CommoditiesboltSpecial Coverage

G7, IEA release 100 million barrels to break the diesel squeeze

G7 and IEA agree to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves over four months, front-loading diesel. What it means for cracks, refiners and pump prices.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 2, 20264 MIN READ

Unmarked, weathered oil tanker at anchor on a grey sea at dusk, lit by a deck floodlight.

CommoditiesboltSpecial Coverage

Treasury's A7 designation blocks a $91.5B shadow payment web tied to Iran oil

Treasury sanctioned the A7 Network and proposed a rule barring U.S. transfers through its sub-agents, hitting a $91.5B Iran oil payment web.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 2, 20264 MIN READ

Unmarked gold bars sit tightly framed between metal shelves inside a dim vault.

Commodities

Gold Holds a $4,100-4,300 Range Into Payrolls as the October-Hike Question Looms

Gold holds a $4,100-4,300 range into Friday's payrolls as October-hike odds approach 51%. Levels, the physical bid, and what a strong or weak print means.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 2, 20264 MIN READ

Steel coils sit on freight railcars in a port yard, with an oil tanker faintly visible beyond the cranes.

CommoditiesboltSpecial Coverage

Treasury targets Iran auto and rail giants as oil revenue nears zero

Iran sanctions now reach the auto, rail and steel networks under E.O. 13902. See how the wider OFAC net and secondary-sanctions risk show up in oil and Brent.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 1, 20264 MIN READ

An unmarked crude oil tanker sits at a loading berth beside pipes, with fuel tanks in the distance.

Commodities

Oil slips as Gulf supply returns; OPEC+ looms, diesel firm

Oil eased as Gulf crude exports recovered ahead of OPEC+. Brent slipped near $97, WTI near $89. Diesel futures stayed firm as Russia extended its export ban.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 1, 20262 MIN READ

Stacked gold bars in sharp focus, with a small vessel of dark crude oil behind them.

Commodities

Gold holds below $4,200 into core PCE; oil eases on truce hopes

Gold consolidates under $4,200 into today's core PCE print; oil eases on US-Iran truce hopes even as Axios reports little progress. Silver and copper firm.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 30, 20262 MIN READ

Open oil-terminal valve beside a locked branch valve, with an unmarked tanker in the distance

Commodities

OFAC's September 28 Venezuela oil licenses open trade, not a free payment route

Three amended U.S. licenses cover Venezuelan oil sales, sector supplies and contingent investment talks. Blocked-person payments are directed to Treasury-designated funds, while new contracts under GL 49B cannot be performed without separate authorization.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 29, 20269 MIN READ