US Labor Market Anxiety Linked to a 0.17 Point Mobility Drop

Labor market anxiety may be suppressing job mobility even as layoffs remain contained. In an October 6, 2026 analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta researchers estimated that rising concern about finding another job reduced the job-to-job transition rate by 0.17 percentage point from April 2022 to April 2026, about half of the observed decline under an explicit assumption about the rate after early 2025. The result points to a quieter source of labor-market weakness: workers can stay employed and still lose bargaining power when moving feels risky.

Key Takeaways Atlanta Fed researchers estimated a 0.17 percentage point reduction in job-to-job transitions from April 2022 to April 2026 from…