Social Security 2027 COLA Projected at 3.6%, the Biggest Since 2023

Social Security's 2027 COLA is on track for 3.6 percent, a projected increase that would be the biggest annual cost-of-living adjustment for retirees since 2023. The Social Security Administration announces the figure on Wednesday, October 14, the same day the September CPI report lands, and the August inflation data has already pushed the forecast higher.

Here is what changed. AARP now estimates the 2027 COLA at 3.6 percent, based on the August Consumer Price Index figures released last month, up from the 3.5 percent it had forecast a month earlier, according to CBS News. The advocacy group's higher estimate followed an August CPI report that showed consumer prices up 3.4 percent from a year ago, above economist expectations, with rising fuel costs the main lift. The Senior Citizens League, another retiree advocacy group, projects a slightly lower 3.5 percent, trimmed from its own prior 3.6 percent estimate.

Related reading: Two of Three CPI-W Months Are Locked. October 14 Sets Your 2027 COLA.

The comparison figure is what makes the number. The current 2026 COLA is 2.8 percent, which the SSA determined on October 24, 2025. A 3.6 percent adjustment next year would mark the largest benefit increase since the 8.7 percent jump effective in 2023, the inflation spike year. In dollars, the SSA reports the average retired worker received $2,071 a month as of January. A 3.6 percent COLA would add about $75 a month, bringing the average to roughly $2,146 at the start of 2027, per CBS News.

The projected raise caps a stretch of milder adjustments. The increases effective for 2024 and 2025 were 3.2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively, with 2.8 percent in effect for 2026. A 3.6 percent move for 2027 would be the largest benefit increase since 2023, provided the last two months of CPI-W readings between now and the October 14 announcement do not pull the final figure lower.

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Who it reaches is the bigger story. More than 70 million recipients depend on the annual COLA to keep their checks abreast of inflation, and this year's projected raise would beat the two most recent adjustments. The increase applies to retirement, disability and survivor benefits, and the SSI payment standard rises with the same percentage.

What is dated next. The SSA will compute the final 2027 COLA from July, August and September CPI-W data, and CBS News reports it will make the official announcement on October 14, the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September CPI report. The adjustment becomes effective with benefits payable for January 2027.

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One caution from advocates. Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, told CBS News that no matter whether the announcement lands slightly higher or lower than its prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run, because older Americans spend differently than the rest of the workforce and healthcare costs hit them harder. The COLA calculation uses the CPI-W, the inflation gauge for urban wage earners and clerical workers, a basket critics say underweights medical care and housing costs that weigh on retiree budgets.

For a retiree budgeting on a fixed check, the takeaway is arithmetic. A 3.6 percent bump on the average benefit equals about $75 a month, or roughly $900 over a year, though the actual figure runs from a few dollars to well over $150 depending on a recipient's benefit. The official percentage on October 14 converts to a concrete monthly number on every January check.

Related reading: Mortgage Rates Reach 7.28% on October 1.

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