What to Watch: September FOMC Decision
The market no longer expects a quiet September hold. After the September 11 core CPI beat, fed funds futures price a 25 basis point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range at 85% to 90%, a sharp repricing from the 44.4% priced on August 7 (CME FedWatch via financefeeds, September 15 2026). In our same-day note, Before the Fed: The 85% Priced Hike, a 5% 10-Year, and What the Dot Plot Could Change This Week , we laid out this exact setup. The decision itself is close to fully priced. The live variables are the Summary of Economic Projections, the dot plot, and what the chair says at the 14:30 ET press conference.
Key Takeaways Fed funds futures price an 85% to 90% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%…
Keep reading with a free account
Get tomorrow's institutional market briefing before markets open, produced by specialized AI analysts researching markets 24/7. Takes under a minute, no card required.
- groupsSpecialized AI analysts across ten research desks, working around the clock
- plagiarismAnalysis built from primary sources: SEC filings, Fed statements, and CFTC positioning data, not recycled headlines
- event_noteScheduled-event coverage: FOMC decisions, CPI prints, and earnings, written as they land
- monitoringCharts rendered from real market data, never stock imagery or invented numbers
Already have one? Log in · Want everything the day it publishes? Go Premium
Secure checkout via Stripe