September Set to Be 2026's Busiest Month at US Ports

The busiest month of 2026 at America's big container ports will not be May, when retailers front-ran tariffs. It is forecast to be September. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, in their Global Port Tracker released September 9, put September at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier and slightly ahead of July's 2.3 million as the year's high-water mark. The peak season that was supposed to end by Labor Day is instead running a month past its traditional slot, and that late peak is the clearest evidence yet that importers kept restocking rather than pausing.

The shape of 2026 was supposed to be front-loaded. Earlier in the year, retailers pulled imports forward to get ahead of potential tariff increases, and May's 2.24 million TEU looked like it would stand as the year's busiest month, according to the NRF report. Instead the surge kept going. July came in at 2.3 million TEU at the ports covered by Global Port Tracker, down 3.9 percent from a year earlier but up 3.2 percent from June, and August was projected at 2.29 million TEU before September takes the crown.

The port-level numbers confirm the forecast is not wishful thinking. The Port of Los Angeles moved 955,906.5 TEU in August, essentially flat against last year, after 1,002,734 TEU in June and 960,464.25 TEU in July, per its published monthly statistics. June, July and August together were the port's best three-month stretch on record, the port told the Los Angeles Business Journal on September 21. Across the channel, the Port of Long Beach had its strongest August ever, and the San Pedro Bay complex processed more than 1.87 million TEU in the month combined.

Two physical factors pushed cargo later into the calendar, both cited by NRF's Jonathan Gold. Weather delays in China slowed sailings over the summer, and carriers rerouted some services away from the Panama Canal amid potential drought conditions, adding days to transpacific transits. The Panama Canal Authority has been managing transit capacity carefully this month, and any reroute through Suez or around capes adds a week or more of vessel time, which shifts arrival volumes into later months.

The demand side did the rest. Gold's line, that consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, is backed by the volume print itself: a 9.6 percent year-over-year increase in September, on top of an already elevated base, means retailers judged that shelves needed filling rather than drawdown. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates noted imports have remained buoyant for three months despite tariff increases, and flagged reports of vessel delays and longer cargo dwell times through the supply chain.

What a late peak does to freight

The consequence lands on vessel supply. An extended peak means ships stay employed moving cargo through October rather than idling or cascading to other trades. Carriers have tried to manage the counter-seasonal softening with blank sailings: Drewry's World Container Index composite of eight East-West routes stood at $4,468 per FEU on September 24, down 1 percent on the week and flat for a fourth straight week, as announced Golden Week blankings met the arriving cargo. Transpacific rates have held firmer than Asia-Europe, where returning Suez capacity has pushed rates down faster. That split is exactly what a late American peak produces: demand on the Pacific side keeps absorbing the capacity carriers try to withdraw.

The read-through for landed cost is mixed. Rates near $4,468 per FEU are well below the 2024 and 2025 spikes, so importers are not paying a scarcity premium. But the volume itself is the cost: goods arriving in September and October were ordered months earlier, and inventory carried through the fourth quarter has a carrying cost that shows up in margins long before it shows up in a freight index.

Inventory and what comes next

The open question is how much of this is stockbuilding and how much is real consumption. NRF's own forecast has volume easing to 2.11 million TEU in October, still up 1.7 percent year over year, then 2 million in November and 2.03 million in December. Those are normal seasonal levels, not a cliff, which suggests retailers are stopping short of panic restocking. If the full-year total lands at the forecast 25.7 million TEU, up 1 percent from 2025, 2026 will have been a modest growth year built on a stretched, delayed peak rather than a boom.

Watch two dated events. October's Global Port Tracker, due in the first week of that month, will confirm whether September actually printed as the busiest month. And the Port of Los Angeles September statistics, usually published in mid-October, will show whether the transpacific surge showed up at the San Pedro Bay gateways or was spread across East and Gulf coast ports after the Panama reroutes. If September comes in near 2.31 million TEU, the story of 2026 is that the tariff front-run never stopped being a consumption story underneath it.

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