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Ukraine's drones knocked out nearly a third of Russia's refining. Diesel just hit a record because of it.

Published September 20, 20265 min read
Refinery distillation towers and pipework glowing at dusk with a tanker silhouette on the horizon
As Ukrainian strikes throttle Russian refining capacity, the market stress is showing up in product spreads and distillate stocks, not the price of crude itself. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Flat crude has spent September trading like a story about something else. Brent settled at $99.29 on September 18, WTI at $96.08, both down on the day, and the 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10 says the market has not bought a sustained breakout . The stress is not in the headline barrel. It is in the products, and that is where Russia's refinery campaign shows up: NYH ULSD cracked near $104 a barrel against Brent at the September 18 settlement, against roughly $30 a year earlier, and RBOB cracked about $38 against $17. The IEA flagged Atlantic-basin refining margins at record highs in August, led by diesel.

Key Takeaways NYH ULSD cracked about $104/bbl against Brent on September 18, versus…

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