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Ukraine's drones knocked out nearly a third of Russia's refining. Diesel just hit a record because of it.

Published September 20, 20265 min read

Refinery distillation towers and pipework glowing at dusk with a tanker silhouette on the horizon — As Ukrainian strikes throttle Russian refining capacity, the market stress is showing up in product spreads and distillate stocks, not the price of crude itself. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Flat crude has spent September trading like a story about something else. Brent settled at $99.29 on September 18, WTI at $96.08, both down on the day, and the 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10 says the market has not bought a sustained breakout . The stress is not in the headline barrel. It is in the products, and that is where Russia's refinery campaign shows up: NYH ULSD cracked near $104 a barrel against Brent at the September 18 settlement, against roughly $30 a year earlier, and RBOB cracked about $38 against $17. The IEA flagged Atlantic-basin refining margins at record highs in August, led by diesel.

Key Takeaways NYH ULSD cracked about $104/bbl against Brent on September 18, versus…

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