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Russia's EUR 31bn Hormuz windfall meets a refinery hole and Sept 24

Published September 21, 202612 min read

Oil tanker glowing gold at dusk beside distant, dimly lit refinery towers at a port terminal. — Russia's Hormuz-driven crude windfall collides with a refinery capacity hole as the September 24 Trump-Xi meeting looms. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The Strait of Hormuz is doing what nine years of sanctions could not: it is filling Russia's treasury. The closure of the world's busiest oil chokepoint has pushed Urals above $110 a barrel at western ports, against the $59 a barrel the Kremlin's own 2026 budget assumes, and Moscow's September oil and gas revenue printed at 739.9 billion roubles, up 15% from August. Reduce it to a monthly number and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) puts the Hormuz windfall at roughly EUR 31 billion of extra Russian export revenue over six months, about EUR 5 billion a month.

The windfall has a counterweight, and it is built by the other war. Ukraine's long-range campaign has taken around…

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