Why the 70% October hike odds hinge on the revised July PCE
August PCE releases at 12:30 UTC today carrying something the market rarely prices until it is too late: the Bureau of Economic Analysis is publishing its annual index revision in the same print, rewriting the PCE series back to 2021. The July core rate of 3.3% that has anchored the higher-for-longer trade will no longer exist after this morning. August must be compared against the revised July baseline in the same release, and that single comparison now decides whether the Federal Reserve's priced-in October hike, which Kalshi puts at 70%, gets confirmed or unwound.
Key Takeaways Kalshi prices a 25bp October FOMC hike at roughly 70%, with Polymarket near 65% and CME Fed funds futures near 68…
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