Jackson Hole 2026: Reserve Scarcity Meets a Fed Split
The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium opened Thursday, August 27, 2026, and the funding-market plumbing underneath the headline debate is sending a signal louder than anything Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to say from the podium. Overnight reverse repo balances have collapsed to $0.20 billion to $0.70 billion over the past week, down from hundreds of billions at the 2023 peak, while SOFR printed at 3.66% on August 25 against an effective fed funds rate of 3.63%. That is the same reserve-scarcity signature that preceded the September 2019 repo spike, and it means the plumbing, not just the inflation prints, could end up constraining how hawkish this Fed can afford to soun…
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