Fed Rate Path: What July 2026 Macro Data Tells Us
The Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75% today, but the more consequential question is what happens next. June CPI printed 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest reading since early 2025, and markets initially cheered the number. They should read it more carefully. The disinflation came entirely from a 5.7% single-month drop in energy prices, while Brent crude has since climbed back above $100 per barrel on renewed US-Iran military exchanges. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, ran at 3.4% year-over-year through May 2026, sitting 140 basis points above target. The data supports a hold today. The data does not support the rate-cut narrative that has been building in equities…
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