Fed Divided, Inflation Reaccelerating: Full Macro Intelligence Report for Week of August 10
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 for the fifth consecutive meeting, but calling it a "hold" understates what actually happened. Three committee members voted to hike immediately. The last time the FOMC split this sharply was 2016. Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish inflation language with no concrete tightening timeline attached to it, a combination that is doing the bond market's work for him, or, depending on your read, simply confusing it. As the week of August 10 opens, two data releases will resolve months of ambiguity: July NFP (August 7) and July CPI (August 12). The macro regime they confirm will determine whether September's meeting is a live hik…
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