Fed at the Inflection: September Rate Hike and What the Data Actually Says
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 29, 2026 meeting, but the vote tells a more complicated story than the headline suggests. Three governors (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike. That is the widest split since September 2016, per the Federal Reserve's official press release, and it signals a committee that is far closer to tightening than the hold implies.
Key Takeaways The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 with a 9-3 dissent, the widest FOMC split since September 2016, per Federal Reserve data. The Strait of Hormuz partial corridor deal pulled the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.75% on July 31 back to 4.62% a…
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