
PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Due Today: Three Prints Test the Fed's 37% October Hike Odds
PPI, retail sales and jobless claims due 12:30Z Thursday, plus a Fed Chair speech, test whether the Fed's 37% October hike odds hold after hot CPI.
Daily coverage · James Nakamura
Earnings, sector rotation and what the index is really pricing.

PPI, retail sales and jobless claims due 12:30Z Thursday, plus a Fed Chair speech, test whether the Fed's 37% October hike odds hold after hot CPI.

A 13% earnings beat was not enough. Wells Fargo missed on revenue again, and investors priced the shortfall in fee income instead of the record profit.

A profit beat was not enough. Johnson & Johnson posted its sharpest day in 18 months because its medical devices arm missed estimates again, and investors looked past the raised guidance to the division that keeps short.

Bank of America reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.08, missing consensus as a $1.2 billion anti-money-laundering fine worth about 17 cents a share cut into profit, and shares indicated lower in premarket trading.

Morgan Stanley reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.03, above the $2.94 street consensus but below the $3.17 estimate on our event calendar. Equity trading revenue jumped 41% to a record run, wealth hit $9.1 billion in revenue, and fixed income slipped 7%.

JPMorgan missed the quarter but raised full-year NII guidance; Goldman beat on a 72% equities revenue surge and Citigroup posted its best Q3 revenue in a decade. The season's depth depends on the macro path, not these beats.

A hot September CPI that lifts the 10-year back above 5.25% would land hardest on the same multiple-sensitive sectors Tuesday quietly shrugged off: tech heavyweights and consumers.

Quantum leader IonQ is paying up to $1.3 billion in stock for a security company, and the market is not cheering. The deal logic and the dilution risk.

The nation's largest insurer finally got a handle on medical costs, and the sector is listening. UnitedHealth beat Q3 estimates and lifted its full-year profit outlook to at least $20.50 a share.

Investors are suddenly asking how expensive U.S. stocks look, and the 41.85 Shiller CAPE ratio has an awkward answer: only the 1999 dot-com peak sits higher, and history flags that exact zone. Here is the number, the context, and what is dated next.

JPMorgan Q3 2026 EPS of $5.57 missed the $5.92 consensus on $0.18 of securities losses. Learn what the print means for bank stocks and the quarter ahead.

KRE rose 0.80% on Monday, reversing Friday's decline as regional banks led financials higher into Wednesday's September CPI. What the reversal and the broader rotation signal before the print.