Bank Earnings, CPI Miss, and the Rotation Setup: Reading the July 15 Equity Market
June CPI came in at 3.5% year-over-year on July 14, below the 3.8% consensus, and the bond market responded exactly as you'd expect: two-year Treasury yields fell roughly 9 basis points to 4.20%, pricing out the residual probability of a near-term Fed rate hike. On the same day, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America reported blowout Q2 earnings. By the July 15 close, SPY had added 0.36% to $751.83, VIX sat at 16.50, and financials were knocking on a 52-week high. On its face, this looks like a straightforward risk-on session. The setup is more interesting than that. Key Takeaways June CPI printed at 3.5% YoY vs. the 3.8% consensus, eliminating near-term Fed hike fears and pushing 2-ye…
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