macro

August CPI in Three Charts: Why Core Inflation Warped the Fed's Next Move

Published September 14, 20265 min read
Dual line chart showing Headline and Core CPI trends over 12 months, with Headline at 3.4% and Core at 3.2% in August

The August consumer price index, released Friday September 11, looked tame on its surface and hot where it mattered. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, and 3.4% from a year earlier, matching July. Core inflation, the reading the Federal Reserve leans on, accelerated 0.3% on the month against a 0.2% consensus and held annual core at 2.4% (BLS, September 11). One tenth of a point does not sound like much, but it was enough to tilt the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting from a close call toward a hike.

Key Takeaways August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, both in line with expectations (BLS, September 11). Core CPI came i…

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