The 10-Year at 5.18% Is Setting Mortgage Rates, and the Fed Is Half the Story
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18 percent on September 24, 2026, the highest since October 2023, per the Treasury's daily par yield curve, and that single number is now doing more damage to housing affordability than anything the Federal Reserve has done this year. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03 percent in the September 24 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the first print above 7 percent since early 2025, and secondary trackers put quoted rates at 7.30 percent or higher by the weekend. The payment on a $400,000 loan has climbed $276 a month since February. That is the story of the fall market, and it is a bond story, not a Fed story.
Key Takeaways The 10-year Treas…
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