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New-Home Sales Cleared at 684,000 While the 30-Year Fixed Crossed 7 Percent

Published September 25, 20266 min read

Line chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, the mortgage-rate benchmark, on a dark background — New-home sales rose to a 684,000 pace in August as builders cleared inventory with incentives, but the 30-year fixed's climb past 7.03% is adding hundreds to the median monthly payment. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The Census Bureau put new-home sales at a 684,000 annual pace in August, up 6.4 percent from July, and months of supply fell to 8.5 from 9.0. Both look like strength. Both are something else: a builder clearing space while the resale market stalls. Per Freddie Mac's PMMS, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03 percent for the week of September 24, the first time it has crossed 7 percent since May 2024, and that number will test this month's builder gain faster than any headline.

The framing problem is arithmetic. At a 7.03 percent rate on a $343,280 loan (20 percent down on the $429,100 median existing-home price NAR reported on September 10), the principal-and-interest payment is $2,29…

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