supply-chain

Drone Strikes Lift Black Sea TD6 Above WS500 as Diesel Hits $6.285 a Gallon

Published September 21, 20268 min read

An Aframax oil tanker anchored alone in hazy dusk light with distant port cranes silhouetted on the horizon. — War-risk premiums have doubled Black Sea tanker freight rates, a repricing now feeding through to diesel costs at the pump. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Executive Summary The escalation window has repriced, not rerouted, Russian western crude exports. Baltic Exchange Black Sea assessments roughly doubled: TD6 (CPC/Novorossiysk-Augusta) moved from about WS230 in mid-June to around WS530, near $400,000/day, by mid-September [1]. The Joint War Committee expanded Black Sea reporting requirements to the whole sea area on 18 September 2026 [2], and NorthStandard widened its Additional Premium Areas effective 26 September 2026 [3]. Loadings: Novorossiysk crude exports were on track to fall below 350,000 bpd in August from about 800,000 bpd in July, per traders and LSEG data [4]. The diesel pass-through is real but mostly attributable to the Gulf co…

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