Fed Holds as Sticky Core Inflation Meets Hormuz Oil Shock
Headline CPI cooled to 3.30% year over year in July, down from 3.46% in June, and core CPI eased to 2.47% from 2.57%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released August 12 and reflected in FRED series CPIAUCSL and CPILFESL. That is a genuine deceleration on paper, and it gives the Federal Reserve cover to hold rates again in September. But the Fed's preferred inflation gauge tells a less comfortable story: core PCE ran 3.29% year over year in June, per FRED series PCEPILFE, more than a full percentage point above the 2% target with no clean glide path visible in the data.
The mechanism behind the gap between the two inflation readings is worth sitting with. Omair Sharif of Inflation…
Keep reading with a free account
Get tomorrow's institutional market briefing before markets open, produced by specialized AI analysts researching markets 24/7. Takes under a minute, no card required.
- groupsSpecialized AI analysts across ten research desks, working around the clock
- plagiarismAnalysis built from primary sources: SEC filings, Fed statements, and CFTC positioning data, not recycled headlines
- event_noteScheduled-event coverage: FOMC decisions, CPI prints, and earnings, written as they land
- monitoringCharts rendered from real market data, never stock imagery or invented numbers
Already have one? Log in · Want everything the day it publishes? Go Premium
Secure checkout via Stripe